BUFFALO, N.Y. — The Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens will meet in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs in a series that should be appointment viewing.
The season series between these two teams was split 2-2, and the combined score of those games was 13-13. Three of those games were in January, when the teams were jockeying for position in the Atlantic Division, with the Sabres winning two, including one in Montreal.
These teams have a lot in common. They are two of the youngest teams in the NHL, loaded with high-end skill, and are newcomers to the second round of the playoffs. And both can boast rabid fanbases in great hockey markets.
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This figures to be a much different matchup for the Sabres than the Boston Bruins were. Playoff experience shouldn’t be a talking point, considering the youth on both rosters. And when it comes to physicality and toughness, the Sabres and Canadiens are pretty evenly matched.
Instead, this series should be a bit more open and entertaining even for neutral observers. While the Bruins were dropping players back into the neutral zone and trying to slow the Sabres down, the Canadiens are a bit more comfortable in a wide-open game. That’s not to say the teams will be trading chances for seven games, but there should be more room to operate.
Here are a few factors to watch and a prediction for the series.
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Goaltending
Both the Sabres and Canadiens went into the first round of the playoffs at a disadvantage in net: The Sabres were up against Jeremy Swayman, while the Canadiens were up against Andrei Vasilevskiy. But both prevailed against a Vezina finalist in part because of their own sturdy goaltending. Jakub Dobeš was stellar in net for the Canadiens, especially in Game 7, when Montreal was heavily outshot but came away with a win. If the 24-year-old has more games like that one, he could give the Sabres fits. He’s played Buffalo three times in his career, going 3-0 with a 2.00 goals-against average and .937 save percentage.
But Buffalo has an answer. After starting Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen for the first two games against Boston, coach Lindy Ruff decided to go with Alex Lyon for the rest of the series. Lyon delivered, winning three of his four starts with a 1.44 goals-against average and a .955 save percentage. Neither goalie has ever carried his team on a long playoff run, but they’ve both shown they can step up in big games.
Puck battles
According to Mike Kelly of SportLogiq, the Canadiens won the highest percentage of puck battles in the first round of the playoffs. It’s one of hockey’s simplest components, but it is often the one that decides games.
Buffalo has some elite players in this department. Zach Benson and Josh Doan showed consistent ability to win the puck battles all season and took another step against the Bruins, while Alex Tuch was also dominant. For Montreal, defenseman Lane Hutson doesn’t get enough credit for the way he wins battles and neutralizes a forecheck.
The Sabres were the best team in the first round in scoring goals off turnovers. So, although the series could be wide open, it might be decided in the tight areas. The Canadiens have some rabid forecheckers who should provide a big test for Buffalo’s top-four defensemen.
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Buffalo’s power play
The Sabres had just one power-play goal versus Boston. They started to get things going late in the series when Rasmus Dahlin scored it, and got a goal from Doan that came seconds after a power play expired. It’s hard to imagine the Sabres will survive another series scoring just once on the power play, especially since the Canadiens managed five in their series against the Lightning.
Young players
The star power in this series will be fun to watch. Cole Caufield and Nick Suzuki are Montreal’s answers to what Buffalo has in Tage Thompson and Tuch on the top line. Hutson and Dahlin are two of the most electric defensemen in the NHL. But this series could be decided by which young players step up. Juraj Slafkovský was his usual self in round one with three goals. But rookie sensation Ivan Demidov wasn’t able to get on the board despite creating a ton of chances.
Meanwhile, the 20-year-old Benson and 24-year-old Doan played a huge role in the Sabres’ series-clinching win over the Bruins and combined for three goals in the series. But Jack Quinn didn’t score at all.
If the two coaches try to play matchups and take away each other’s top lines, the teams’ depth of scoring will help decide this series.
Home ice
The last time the Sabres and Canadiens played in Buffalo, there was a lot of red in the crowd. It was so significant that Dahlin made a point to send a message to the fans after that game.
“I really, really appreciate the fans that came out, but I don’t want to see that many red in the future,” Dahlin said.
Canadiens fans travel as well as any fanbase in the league, and Buffalo is an easy drive from Montreal. There are also a ton of Canadiens fans in Ontario, an even easier drive. Undoubtedly, some of those fans will make their way to KeyBank Center.
The difference, though, is that the majority of the seats have already been sold to season-ticket holders. There won’t be a ton of tickets available for Montreal fans unless they’re able to grab them on the secondary market. This could be a subplot worth monitoring, though. Buffalo had one of the rowdiest home crowds in the first round, and we know Montreal can match that energy. Oddly, neither the Sabres nor the Canadiens dominated at home in their first-round series, with the Sabres going 1-2 in Buffalo and 3-0 on the road and the Canadiens going 1-2 in Montreal and 3-1 on the road.
Injuries
Noah Dobson returned to Montreal’s lineup for Game 7, making Patrik Laine the only Canadien on the injury report, barring anyone going down in Game 7 versus Tampa Bay. The Sabres will be without Sam Carrick (arm) and Noah Östlund (lower body), but neither of those absences is a surprise. Logan Stanley should be ready to return after missing Game 6 against Boston with an illness.
Prediction
This could be the start of an entertaining rivalry between the two rising teams in the Atlantic Division who haven’t met in a playoff series since the late ’90s. Buffalo was the more complete team during the regular season, with a more reliable blue line, but the Canadiens are an opportunistic bunch with clutch scorers and have come through in big spots. If the Sabres continue to get solid goaltending, they should have enough of an edge elsewhere to handle what could be a memorable, back-and-forth series.-
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